why won't my ipad update to iOS15?

Whether or not you are able to update any iPad to a newer version of iOS/iPadOS will be dictated by the iPad model - and the currently installed version of iOS. You can find this information here:

Settings > General > About

Not sure which iPad you have? Identify your iPad model.

Here is a list of the highest version of iOS supported by the older models of iPad (for simplicity - “generations” are shortened to a number) that are restricted in their ability to be updated:

iPad1 - iOS 5.1.1

iPad2, iPad3 and iPad mini1 - iOS 9.3.5 (WiFi Only models), iOS 9.3.6 (WiFi & Cellular)

iPad4 - iOS 10.3.3 (WiFi Only), iOS 10.3.4 (WiFi & Cellular)

iPad Air1, iPad mini2 and iPad mini3 - iOS 12.5.5

Newer models, not appearing in this list, are all able to be updated to the current version, iPadOS 15.5

The first generation iPad Air, iPad mini2 and mini3 - as suggested by the tags appended to your post - can only be updated to iOS 12.5.5.

Apple ended major update support for these models of iPad in September 2019 - although they since continue to receive “point” security updates - the most recent being released late last year. These devices cannot be updated to iPadOS 13 (or any later major versions of iPadOS) as the internal hardware does not meet the minimum technical requirements (CPU and RAM) for newer versions of iOS/iPadOS.

Some App developers have dropped support for iOS versions preceding iOS 13.x for technical reasons (often because APIs or software libraries upon which they rely have been updated in the new version of iPadOS, making their App incompatible with earlier versions). 

Whilst many App titles remain compatible with your iPad, if you want or need to access to Apps requiring the most recent versions of iOS, you’ll need to consider replacement of your iPad with a newer or current model that supports iPadOS15.

Sorry, I appreciate that this may not be what you were hoping to learn.

I hope this information provides clarity as to your available options - and the fundamental limitations of your iPad.

You are very welcome.